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Big Bets On Campus
Big Bets On Campus

Episode · 1 year ago

Sources with Brett McMurphy | College Football Week 5

ABOUT THIS EPISODE

Is it time to start speculating on Heisman futures? Has the opportunity for a College Football Playoff longshot presented itself yet? What are we supposed to do with Cincinnati? This week Collin Wilson and Brett McMurphy of the Action Network tackle the big questions from an AP Top 25 perspective and beyond, while providing the Woo Pig Sooie talk our listeners have now come to expect week in and week out.

And to take advantage of our WynnBET offer, please follow this link: 

https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/wynnbet 

And we'll see you tomorrow for our Week 5 Group of Five Deep Dive with Mike Calabrese and Mike Ianniello!

The big bets on campus podcast is presented by wind beat Sports Book and they've got a great sign up offer for our listeners. New Wind beat patrons who opened an account and deposit twenty or more can make their first beat risk free up to Onezero. That's right. If you open a new wind beat account, make a qualifying deposit in place your first bet within ten days. That that is risk free up to onezero ineligible states. To get started, all you have to do is click on the action network link in this episode description. Okay, let's get things started, all right. Here we go. Twenty five, thirty, thirty five, fifty. Check. It's not the size the fun, it's the size of the welcome to big bets on campus sources edition presented by Wind Bet, my co host, action networks own Brett mcmurphy. I'm Actually Network Senior Writer, Colin Wilson. My takeaway from week four look ahead to week five, Brett, I got I just have to bring it up after your article, that the coaches know about the points bread. I got Pat Fitzgerald on my list after scoring eighteen points in the fourth quarter to cover a fourteen and a half point spread. I'm sure he would say that's coincidence. That's pretty much what every coach that I talked to said. They did admit they get a lot of pressure from boosters, from donors, especially in the hotel lobby night before the game, day the game. What struck me the most with that article is that none of the coaches, current or former, one of their names used. Even though it's legal. There's still this concern about being connected with covering the spread for some reason. One coach told me, you know, look, you know, but booster asked me if kind of if I'm going to cover, do you think I'm really going to risk my livelihood and my job because some boosters going to give me a few hundred bucks? He goes on. Not that stupid. Yeah, obviously nobody is ever ever going to disclose that they know what the point spread is, but there are so, I mean you you listened it out so perfectly in that article about what it'll coaches that are still playing full speed when there's no reason to, when you actually have time on the clock where you can just take knees in the game could be over. I think one thing that I look at. I Know Arkansas got beat by Gus Miles on a couple years ago while he was at Auburn. This point spread is twenty nine and a half and with under two minutes left, gust miles on's kicking like a forty five yard field goal. Up Twenty eight. Up Twenty eight, kicking a field goal under two minutes left. The cover twenty nine a half. So it's definitely known. I think. Some other things. For me, what a turnout in the SEC here we've got auburn firing their wide receivers coach. I don't know why they're not firing Mike Bobo after calling an end zone fade against Penn state. We Got Arkansas absolutely demolishing a text sims and the more physical team with the less recruiting stars. Anything else kind of jump out of you this past weekend? Yeah, it's just again what we talked about a little bit last week. Just more chaos. I mean, let's recap. Before the season, OA, Clement, Texas anounced their leaving for the SEC, then Byu, Cincinnati, Houston and you, you, Seef, announced their leaving the American for the big twelve. So let's recap the college football season. Today, six teams for now or changing conferences. Three coaches have been fired and twenty five ranked teams have already lost, and it's not even October. First, you've got nine members of the preseason top twenty five that have already lost twice, including Clemson, Iowa, state,...

North Carolina, Wisconsin, you know. Of that group, you throw in Indiana, USC Washington and Utah. Of that group, Clemson somehow remains ranked at twenty five. Certainly not on my ballot, but the other other people that vote for the Pole, I guess we're mesmerized by the Tigers averaging, you know, seven points a game. But Anyway, of that group, what's what do you think has been the biggest disappointment for you so far? Well, clemes it, obviously. I mean even as we talk about this, I know that they've dropped down twenty five in the a peopole and I know that you have them dropped out completely. I hammered them as much as I could in the power ratings. They still fell fifteen in the action never power ratings. And as I'm looking at the live board right now, when that is, you know, a sixteen point favorite over Boston College, I mean, what is this? I don't understand the love affair with clubs like I'm off the train. Last week I thought they could pull it together. I'm officially off the train. So maybe now that I'm off the train, Clemson can find their way back into the ape top twenty five. But I can't talk about your bowl rankings, your bowl projections, without mentioning that you moved Arkansas from the Birmingham Bowl to there's the sugar bowl. I it was a sugar bowl. Yeah, it's the sugar bowl. I gets so, oh you, with a spread of six. I Would Hammer Arkansas plus six against oh you all day. I did it for you calling. I mean look, you got to you got to stop ignoring them. You could make a legitimate argument based on the Games that have been played this season, not based on preseason expectations and all that, but simply based on the opponents that you've played and beaten so far. You can make a legitimate Arkansas. This gives me a legitimate argument. Please nobody record this because I don't want calling to put it back in my face. Arkansas could be the nation's number one team. That's how impressive they have been. I had them fifth. I think they fell in at eight. If they went at Georgia. They're going to to get some number one votes. I don't care what happens with the Alabama will miss no question about and one thousand nine hundred ninety eight twenty year old call and went to Knoxville, Tennessee and got my heartbroken by t Martin in the vols and Clint Sterner stumbling and fumbling. The reason stumble and fumble is in the audio intro to the show is because I was in Neiland when that happened and it's been with me forever. If we get up to that again, date, no channeler for the National Championship. I don't know if I'M gonna be able to take it. I think another team that we might want to mention, two teams where some things are getting rumbled around. We you know, we don't want to not mention it, is herb street calling out Lsu flat out mean just I don't I think he was had this cut up or anything. I think this was straight from the inside saying you got to wonder if Ellis was given up on the season. And then Spencer Rattler getting booed. He can't get the ball down deep. You have any take on Lsu or Oklahoma to this point. Well, we're going to find out if lsu cares this week when they play Auburn, you know, and Gettin the you still look at the rest of that schedule. You know, it's so comical to even suggest the coach would be on the hot seat two years after winning a national title. But if LSU rolls out a seven and five, six and six, yeah, coach chose, definitely on the hot seat. The real question above it. As far as Oklahoma, I think everybody's trying to figure out what in the world has happened now Plumba's offense. Two weeks ago that was the fewest points the sooner as it scored in the regular season under Lincoln Riley. Guess what? They scored fewer points against West Virginia last week. Now they play Kansas State and all Kansas State is done is they've won the last two times against Oklama if I remember correctly, maybe three in a row. So case State's got Oh use number. This will be a you know, this will be a big game for the big twelve because if Oklahoma loses this game, you know, unless Oklaoma state or Baylor runs a table, I don't expect either of those things happening. The big twelve is going to be like the ACC watching the playoffs from home. Spence, a Raller, better signed as many autographs as you can at a hundred fifty dollar pop this week, because that may not be have as much value going into next week. Are You brot? I don't know. You're sleeping schedule. I know you're on the east coast. For everybody listening. Did you...

...happen to watch your Arizona, your week one Arizona wildcats that you love so much? You Watch them good, we're in a problem through three quarters. Or were you sleeping it? Already submitted your AP top twenty five. What was I watching? Maybe Byu USF so here in Tampa. I wanted to see the bulls, that dynamic quarterback. I tech somebody today. They looks like Michael Vick, except he's faster, if that's possible. But now Arizona. Look they covered for me and week one against Byu. Since then the wheels, if I would say they have fallen off, but I don't know if they ever actually had any wheels. They are among seven teams right now that have not won a game this year, including the likes of Florida State, our friends in Tallahassee, Yukon and, of course, U Mass, our friends and Tallahassee absolutely well. I think Oregan could lose this weekend. So we'll see. I'll see if I come out with a play against them at something about this Stanford team is so jackal and hide. I don't know what it is, the the the numbers, the advance every sem me. They stink, but they're in these games. I am really glad that you said they got that cover. I didn't want to have to backtrack on all my stanford takes. So we'll see what happens this weekend. All right, next segment. Sources. Speed round, the sources speed round. This is the segment I get to ask Brett as many questions as possible and if I hear anything for my gambling years, I get to ask Brett to explain himself by calling a time out. Are you ready, Brett? Let's do it. All right, the clock starts now. Question One. Does Sam Pittman have any advantage in with his history working under Kirby Smart? Yes, sir. Does Kirby Smart, though, have a bigger advantage than Sam Pittman going up against his old offensive lineman coach? Yes, sir, yes sir. Is it enough for Arkansas to upset the dogs? No, sir. All Right, sorry, Colin. Sam Pittman is extremely hands off. I think people need to realize that he doesn't actually even coach the offensive line. It's Kindall Briles, you know, to calling the offense for Arkansas and it's Todd Monkin's offense being called for Georgia's. So I don't think there's any advantage here. But do you have any other takes on Arkansas Georgia this early in the week? To quote current colorade a state coach, Steve and Dazio, the bulldogs have more dudes. What's better than this? Guys being dudes. That's the difference. Will Layane Kiffin be the first assistant to beat Nick Sabing? No Way, time out. All Right, I'm calling a flag. Line opens. Twenty, limit bets out the door. Ole Miss is down to fourteen and it should. I just write you in. On Saturday on the BBOC live show, the the the Bama posters come on up again, I'm afraid so. I mean, you know, Kiffin's offense is incredible. He's going to put up a ton of points. You know, I look at I think Sabin, they were folk again it was southern miss, but you know, Bryce Jung showed some explosive plays. We talked about last week. That against Florida is the first time in a few years that they had no plays over thirty yards. And then what do they do against southern miss? I'll be at the degree of difficulties a lot different. I just think Bama's defense will be the difference and I think they learned a lot from that Florida game. I'm not going to be thrilled laying fourteen, fourteen and a half, because I know in the fourth quarter kiffin's going to be slinging it and slinging it and slinging it and they're going to be ripe for the sneak in the back door there. The strength of the Alabama defense is the back seven and that's huge. Against old miss it's a different cap that, guess, the Florida where the trench was really the most important part for the gators. So all right, clock back on. What's your pick for the over under? And I like how I had the question teet up at seventy seven bread but now it's seventy nine and a half. It win bet as. It's going to eighty. It's going to eclipse eighty. What is your pick for the over? Under all? Bama will miss. Is that the first half line? Give me the over. What's the next move? And Conference realignment?...

Air Force in Colorade, a state to the American likely next week. That's breaking news. Who is the Florida state dumpster fired team of the week calling? This week we don't have just one team, three teams from the ACC. The top three teams from the ACC, Clemson, North Carolina, North Carolina and Miami, a combined four and six against FBS teams this season. CONGRATS. All Right, time out, boot, throw the flag, Brett, another flag. You're out of TIMEOUTSE but go ahead. I am out of time. As a thirty second Minnesota lost a bowling green. Can Pj Fleck me fired? What do the administrate? I know they have to love him. They're buying into that shit, but the whole roll about that. He owns whatever. But you lost a bowling green. I saw it too. I saw a tweet. I wish I knew who who sent it out. I would proudly say who they were, but in force. I don't remember it. He said a week ago. Worrying about PJ fleck taking the USC job. This week, wondering if PJ Fleck will be fired for losing a book Bowling Green Wow, Minnesota right now. Plus two and a half a wind bet against produce produced. Got Some injury situations. You got to figure out first before we lay any money on that game. All right, last question in the with the clock back on. which upcoming game can you absolutely not wait to see? Forget about all the blockbusters this week, must see TV is next week. That's right. Win Less you mass and win less you con and Reapest Bowl Two thousand and twenty one. What's The reput Bowl, you ask? Of course it's super bowl backwards. Set your calendars for a week from Saturday. Good luck on Stucky and I'm not cutting twenty minutes of our podcast on that game. Love to dive into that. All right, that cuts it. That sources speed round. Let's go ahead and hop right into our next segment. The AP top twenty five versus the Action Network Top twenty five. Okay, so let's go ahead and start off with cleansing to twenty five. I've dropped him. The fifteen. Brett says no go. You're not in there whatsoever. Now I do like your inclusion of wake forest. Then at twenty four. That is a team that has a path to actually win the ACC their odds of come down from a hundred and fifty one down I think, seventy five to one. For just when the A SEC it be a wind bet. So it's definitely worth a look. They're not much not much difference. Baylor comes in after an upset victory. There's a good chance they can get another upset victory this weekend. You had him at nineteen twenty one in the ape pole. I've got them power rated at forty seven. Then if they went again. I know, I know, I'm so far off. I think the big thing for me is the offensive numbers are finally showing out and even though I know there's this there about three and a half points away from getting inside the top twenty five. From an action ever power rating perspective, they just continue to be underdogs. are going to have to keep winning to get bumped up. Michigan state comes in eighteen in your poll, seventeen in the AP top twenty five. I still have them down around thirty six. There's nothing about that Nebraska victory at all that impressed me. With Michigan State and yeah, I know, but you got a reward teams when they win. I know where they are in the power ratings, but I had to put them in there somewhere. Absolutely. Let's see who else I got a big difference. Obviously Texas am did not take that big of a hit for me. I still have them PR ranked at number nine. Bret, you came in at seventeen. The AP final came in at number fifteen. Are you have to think, with how beat up their offensive line is, the inefficiency of Zach cals out of this is not going to be the only loss they take. Forget Alabama. That's a loss right. This is not going to be the only loss they take with that dysfunctional of an offense. Now it's not. And in that surprise I mean like you, I thought am would handle Arkansas. But yeah, they've got some serious problems on the offensive line. And I actually watched him play New Mexico and I should have realized that they've really didn't run the ball that well against New Mexico. I think they were trying to pass more and work on their passing game, but they're really didn't they name the score against New Mexico, but it's not like they overpowered him. And you take away...

...the one long run against Arkansas and they really had little to any offense in Arlington. Poor tackling, whatever that was on that on that shark wheel route to Aj Green that we had out of the backfield and that and you basically he pushed him towards the endzone instead of wrapping of a tackling. That was you just you just said we by the way, but go ahead. Oh, we as INS in sue. We. Yeah, we, yeah, it's a it's an emotional time being for no, it's been a while. The next one we have to talk about, obviously, is Oklahoma. I've still got them power rated up at for you are the lowest of all AP voters at fifteen. They came in at six and the AP you are the lows of fifteen. I guess you're done with the sooners right. Everything we talked about before. I just look. I reward teams when they win and and penalize them when they lose. And Yeah, Oklahoma is not lost, but they've also they squeaked by a two lane team that gave up approximately three hundred points to oh miss, or would have if kiffin would have kept the pedal down. And then they win by three against a West Virginia team that lost to Maryland. They were going to the final minute against Nebraska team that lost to Illinois, lost to Michigan State. This is the worst offense o clomas had under Lincoln Riley, and so I dropped him down. I certainly don't think they're top ten team. Why are they in the top ten right now? I'll tell you why. Because they started out the year in the preseason top three, four five, and I had them in my top five. But at this point, again, based on what has happened on the field of this point, I think they deserved to be dropped a lot. Now, if they win, I'll move them back up. I know the power ratings disagree. I know the Oklahoma fans disagree. I've had two people I work with it eat, that I used to work with the ESPN, who are sooner fans, text me saying what the hell are you doing ranking on that low? You know it's because you're an Okloma state grab and I said it has nothing to do with where I went to school. I've got Oklhoma state lower than anybody else. I think I had them at twenty four. They came in at nineteen. It doesn't matter to me. Ohio state fans threatened my life after the Urban Myers Story. I ranked in preseason number one. The next year I could care less about the schools and I'm looking at what they've done on the field. So look, I'm not saying they're going to finish at fifteen or sixteen wherever I have them, but to me right now, in a snapshot of the month of September, they are not a top ten team. Well, as a guy that's got a couple dimes down on the opener of ten to one on Oklahoma to win the national championship, that's I was placing back in January and February, I don't feel comfortable that they're winning the national championship at all. So I'd still alive. But yeah, you don't feel comfortable. They're alive. But I mean you're I mean this is separation. Saturday, come out. We have two weeks in a row of major games. Red Rivers next week. I mean Texas really has a chance to assert themselves and get back up into it. Gonna Switch Gears. A team that I completely understand why you have ranked. You're the highest AP voter on this team and there were handful of voters that didn't even rank them, and I completely wonder person believe I am with you, and that's Fresno state. So Fresno state comes into eighteen. I don't think they have a chance to be the best group of five and get into a New York New Year six with so many teams in front of them, coastals in front of them, Cincinnati's in front of them. It may be tough SLEDDIN for them to get to a new year six, but I've one hundred percent agree with you on Fresno State. They've got a path. They just need some help. Obviously Cincinnati runs a table. They're out. Coast runs a table. It could get interesting because coastals powerfive win was Kansas. Fresno would have beaten Ucla and basically took Oregon to the brink. So if Oregon runs a table in the pack twelve, that boost up Fresno's profile and you know, I wouldn't say they have no chance, but certainly I think Cincinnati's their biggest obstacle. Kayland bore the hottest gfive coaching, name when, once we get to the conference championship weekend, first week into December. Butfore we get there. But you know, I don't think he wants to head to you, Connor Torso Southern, unless SC wants him, they can have them.

Yeah, who knows? WHO DOES S see one. Everybody will get a raise, except for you and me calling because they'll all be linked to the USC. Dumb. The biggest game between the biggest game on the board is weekend for me personally, from a from a money standpoint, from the futures, from everything that I've preached about Notre Dame, for everything I've preached about Cincinnati, for me having, you know, bets at when bet, you cannot just bet on the Heisman, but you can bet on who's going to finish top three in the voting. This Cincinnati Notre Dame game is just paramount to everything else on the board. Brett, you come in and you've got him at number eight. The A P pole finishes them in at number seven. The Action Network number seven is pretty much agreement. There Notre Dame at number nine. I'm trying to look. How high did you put these guys? Notre Dame and number seven for you and they came in. They people number nine. So I a lot of a lot of parallel thinking when it comes to both Cincinnati Notre Dame and their rankings. Very interesting dynamic. Marcus ringman leaving Cincinnati. Brian Kelly was once at Cincinnati. You got me inside for us on this one. I get a quick Brian Kelly story. Root for. First I'm going to ask get Brian Kelly Trivia question. He's been coaching over forty years. He had a losing season in two thousand and sixteen at Notre Dame. Do you know the other two years he had a losing season? I'll say Cincinnati and central Michigan. You got one right. Central Michigan. He was for and seven. Never had a losing record at Cincinnati. The only other time Brian Kelly had a losing record was at Assumption College. He went seven and twelve as the women's softball coach in one thousand nine hundred and eighty four. So there you go. The only three times Brian Kelly's that a losing record. Whatever we meet, I would ranks at a bar I am not getting into some Trivi with you at what's the right yeah, Brian Kelly broke new rockney's record and he started out as a softball coach at Assumption College. Yeah, you know I'm in favor of execution. Maybe our entire team used to be executed after tonight. Speaking of Brian Kelly, let's go back in the time machine. Two Thousand and nine I went to Cincinnati covered the Cincinnati pit game. He had his weekly radio show at the Montgomery in tremendous barbecue place, by the way. I highly recommend it. If you've never been there, it's jam packed. There's rumors about him and Notre Dame, Cincinnati was playing pit. Two days later hit the restaurant. Cincinnati was actually selling these red towels. I used to have one. I looked, I can't find it. It said committed to Kelly. They were selling them for five dollars each, like they're going to sell enough towels to to forward this money to be k. So we wouldn't go to Notre Dame. After the show, I went up to him and I asked him. I said, what's your response to all this speculation about you leaving after the season to Notre Dame and he he didn't like that question and he said why can't a coach stay here a long time, for a long career? And he reference Bobby Ball and at Flor state in a couple others. Okay, so I wrote my story. Two days later. Cincinnati trails thirty one to ten first half. They come back and beat Pitt for thousand five hundred forty four behind wide receiver kick returner Marty Gilliard. Look him up on Youtube. The kid was amazing. And yes, five days later, on the night of Cincinnati's team banquet, Kelly accepted the Notre Dame job. Of course these you can't try this comes to injuries and where these coaches are going. You can't. Can't trust anything. Any of these guys are saying so, but you're right. Yeah, big game. Do you know who you're taking on Saturday? I can't see a situation where I'm taking Notre Dame. I'm probably going to be in the in Cinnati boat by the time we come Saturday. I mean, you look at all the numbers. You know. We've talked about Notre Dame. We talked you know I had zero yards rushing against Wisconsin. Notre Dame at three, okay, but still you want you know that the magic of the Irish, the second longest nations, second longest home winning streak, and Cincinnati. You know they are not that good as a road favorite. Yeah, they did take care of Indiana, but there was everything...

...bounced their way against Indiana. I don't know. I think I'm trying to find a way to take Notre Dame. I wouldn't feel good about it because all the numbers and everything else says Cincinnati should be the play here. I was surprised. I remember texting you on Saturday and you thought Notre Dame would be favored. Now I see Cincinnati is a small favorite, so I'm going to have to go with the stecky method and flip a coin on Saturday. Well, money definitely talks and that's what's driving this market right now and I don't think it's going to stop coming in on Cincinnati. But there is definitely a buy. I can't believe I'm saying this. There's definitely a byepoint on Notre Dame and when I look at the advanced stats on these two teams and standard down success rate defensively, they ranked ninth and eleven. So what does that mean? There's going to be a lot of third and longs, and I think the handicap in this game comes down to who is able to convert third down. So definitely that is where my handicap has started today when I started doing a deep dive. It's that these two defenses are tremendous on first and second down. It just in it's again success rate. So a lot of cirtainlongs coming up and whoever convert those is going to be the one that wins this game. Last question I got to ask you. Maryland Beats Iowa on Friday, are you going to drop Iowa from fifth all the way out of the top twenty five? There they do. Ever went over I was state. I I mean, I don't preconceive I'm going to drop this team here there. I would probably drop on between fifteen to twenty, maybe, depending on what else happens. Certainly they are out of the top ten, no question, and still can easily win the west and shake up every then Maryland Marylyn would jump in the rankings to yeah, which is Great. I mean, I'm from a future perspective. I had over five and a half on Maryland going into the season and couldn't be happier with the way things are going. But this highlands. Yeah, this is Iowa. Things got to come to an end at some point. This is your heisman handicap. The hisman trophy is wanted to all right, so this is the heisman handicap. These odds are via win Bet Brett. We're not going to just take a look at WHO's going to win the highsman and of the odds on that. Let's take a look at wind bets. Top three to finish for the heisman trophy. You know, that is a bet where you can actually find some value, because their teams could find paths to be a college football playoff contender or a one loss and if we find a quarterback, or I should say running back, or wide receiver, defensive player that has better odds and their team does winning the next championship, and obviously there is something there. Now you know to make the top three in voting, Bryce Young of Alabama and Matt Corral of whole miss are five hundred to finish top three. The guy that loses between Alabama and Ole Miss, because you've said it before, the heisman is also team dependent. So let me ask you. Are you still considering the loser of this game and your heisman voting? Well, yeah, I mean yes, because I have to put my vote in next week. But you know, certainly if Matt Corral has more to gain with the win than Bryce Young, if bryce young wins, Alabama wins, young puts up decent numbers, he's still on track. If kral wins, if old miss wins, carrals got to have a monster game. Will it vault him to the to the clear cut favorite, like it did Joe Borough with the Lsu a couple of years ago? Oh miss still has some mine fields the rest of the way. I don't think they're going to go undefeated. How many losses are two losses are too many losses? One Guy on this list that I think has some good value is j t Daniels. Is Plus nine hundred to finish in the top three. Look, George's defense is incredible. They can run the ball. They you know, jat, when he's healthy, can put up some numbers. Will Guess what if Georgia runs the table and Beats Alabama for the SEC title game and Daniels is putting up decent numbers and all miss suffered three or four losses Jat and Georgia won the head to head against Alabama. I think Daniels has some great value to get there. So if you think, if you like Georgia to go thirteen and no, I...

...doubt you can get him at plus nine hundred to win that the SEC or even a win the national title. So I think getting Daniels at plus nine hundred to get in the top three again, if you think they're going to go thirteen and O, because I think that's his only path, I would absolutely take that. Definitely has way better value than taking Georgia to win the National Championship. A name on the or the SEC or that is he see that high. Yeah, yeah, I think JAC Daniels is a that's very good value. That is an example of a player that you'd want to buy and say of taking what the team odds are for the futures. Another name on here, but Jean Robinson for Texas is at twelve two one. I've seen Texas at eighty two one to win the national title and I think of a running backs going to win this, they're going to have to be that good. So definitely I would pass on that number. The one that intrigues me here, and I have to ask you lean on your expertise as a heisman voter. Cj Stroud took the week off to get healthy, but his numbers are excellent. Does it matter that he took a week off against Akron in your eyes as a heisman voter? Now, absolutely not. Nobody will remember that. Nobody will say, Oh, you didn't play against Akran. They'll remember what he did against or again and they'll remember. You know, it'll mean more what he does in the upcoming Games against pin staid, against Michigan and if they're in the big ten title game. So yeah, it's not like any look, I know more people vote for the heisman than vote for the US presidential election, but I'm pretty confident that nobody that has a ballot will consider that CJ strout didn't play against ACRA. Other names up there. Casey Thompson moves from fifty to one to thirty two one. This is thirty two one to finish top three in the voting. If Texas runs the table right and they and they win the big twelve with one loss, I think he's got a better shot than Robinson, I just said. I just think the HEISMAN's geared. It's become a quarterback award. They say that Davante Smith went it last year, but it's going to take some kind of season like that. I don't think Robinson's going to be able to put up those kind of numbers. I think it would be more Thompson and Thompson. You know, it helps to have a storyline. Yeah, Thompson wasn't didn't start the season as the starter. He came in. Does he save the Longhorn? Not Save the season, but now does he lead him to the to the big twelve championship? I mean that's a possibility. Yeah, I mean he's, he's I don't have a stat in front of me, but since since the alamobowl, he's led Texas on I think, twenty three scores out of twenty six or twenty seven drives. That's very, very impressive. I doubt he can keep that going, but he can make he can make a run, certainly if the horns can get past their Nemesis Oklahoma and Dallas. This is quickly becoming a pro Texas point of view, is at least from my side. That's two weeks in a row. Now I'm noticing things in the box score. I Know Texas put up seventy against Texas tack and that's not really a big deal, but the offense that they had coming into the season wasn't putting seventy points up on anybody, and Sark has changed things around. I think a having Casey Thompson a quarterback is a huge it's given to Jean Robinson Room to run. Also, one name. Not Wait, wait, wait, wait, time, I get I get one time out. Okay. So how does an Arkansade guy suddenly on the Texas Band Wagon? Sure it has nothing to do with the fact that Steve Sarkisian follows you on twitter, does it? I listen, I appreciate coach dark's interest and what we're doing over at the action network and I wouldn't want to do anything to offend him. But to be completely honest, I got a fifteen year old who's looking at going to ut he's he's going to be a computer engineer and he's thinking about living in Austin when you grad get gets out of high school. So having a son go to the rival is like just the craziest thought ever. But you know, my your kids come before anything else. So made and when he and when he's at ut they'll be playing Arkansas every year. I don't even know how that's going to work out. I'll see him down on six street, either six street and table or Sixth Street in Austin. It'll be one of those two. But I thought Casey Thompson not being named the starter and what he did last year in the bowl game, I thought he was the more explosive quarterback and that last drive he had against Arkansas...

...kind of lived up to what he was. I never had any disbelief and what stark's offense was, and so we'll see how they go. That's a big game next week. Excited to see it. Before we get off the heisman talk, I just have to say one thing. kJ Jefferson's not on this list. KJ Jefferson doesn't even have a number. I mean Spencer Sanders is on here, eighty two one, Brett. Kadi Jeffers not even on this list. But what do we got to do to get the dual threat quarterback? Back of two hundred and sixty seventy pounds throwing, can only throw a deep pass and can only juke out the entire front seven. I. What are we going to do to get him some love for the highsman? Well, I wouldn't be better if there's no love. So you can you can grab a giant number and then, if it comes to fruition, you'll be the the smartest guy in the room. You know what? This is how we're going to leave the segment. I'm going to ask you. You have to be honest with me, or else I'll have to look it up. Did you vote for Choice Smith or Darren McFadden for Heisman back in two thousand and six? God, I can't remember, but I think I voted for McFadden. Yeah, I'm still shock the choice Smith won that one. One that Heisman, Der McFadden was easily the most valuable player. All right, wait, don't get me started about how McCaffrey didn't win the Heisman, because that was the biggest heisman. You know West Coast scope paw, I know, and I worked at ESPN then, so I would watch every game in the war room where we had twelve TV's from noon to zero am, and I saw McCaffrey and Stanford play every single week. That kid was so freaking amazing, but unfortunately, you know ten, nine or ten other Games we're after, you know, nine eastern, so nobody song. That's when you're back doing the show with mcbrown, who's having some struggles there with the tar heels these days. I wonder right, yeah, I wonder how I don't know if MAC wants to get to retirement if things don't work out in North Carolina. We'll see. All right, let's move on to our last segment, the playoff payoff, the College Football Playoff, payoff, playoff, I'll talk about playoff. You kidding me? Playoff. So these odds are via win Bet Bret. Before we get into the odds to win the National Championship, to the College Football playoff, I have to ask you to rank the one loss teams from Florida, Ohio State, Texas A, M Usua, Auburn, NC state. I think the first question is is who's the number one one lost team if the College Ball playoff rankings came out today? I mean INC state, I mean maybe Clemson. Are you? Are you discounting the UCLA LOSS TO FRESNO? Are you discounting the NC state loss of Mississippi State on the road? I think they would actually give more value to the NC state loss and I think beating Clemson means more than beating Lsu. So I would again. I'm thinking how the committee would think. I think. I think they would have INC state over UCLA, Texas am no quality wins, Ohio state, no quality wins, Florida hasn't beat anybody. It sounds crazy, but I think the committee would actually favor INC state at this point, right now, based on the Clemson win and the lost in Mississippi state over the other one lost teams five hundred one via win bet to win the national title and see State. For those of you listening to Mr Bretman Murphrey hype up the Wolf Pack. Yeah, you know that the curse. The curse has been broken. According to day Dorn, we'll pack curse has been broken even a how some of the odds are the top four. I'll name off Alabama's plus one hundred and fifty. Georgia plus two hundred, Ohio State fifteen to one, Oklahoma fifteen to one, Oregon twenty two one, and then there's a just a boatload of teams kind of stuck in the middle. We talked about like since he penn state forty two one. Okay, Brett. What about one of the props that win bet has up right now is Alabama or Georgias one hundred and ninety five to win the College Football playoff? Now there's a number of scenarios that could happen here right Alabama or Georgia...

...face each other in Assy Championship game. One could lose, they could both get in. They'll be seated one and four, if that, I'm sorry. They'll be seated somehow magically one and three or two and four so that they don't face each other right off again. But there is outside possibility. These are the two teams playing for the National Championship. There is an outside possibility that one of these teams makes it to the championship game and their five or better, which would represent this number of minus one hundred and ninety five, are would you would you take this prop on Alabama and Georgia or would you bet the field? I actually would take Alabama and Georgia. I don't like, you know, having money on something like that, but you know your example. You gave your so you're basically saying if either one of these teams are in the championship, they would have to be less than a five point favorite for you not to have val you in this play and you could have Alabama and Georgia meet for the title. Now, look, neither team could get there also, but I think more times than not Alabama or Georgia will be in the title game this year and the spreads is going to be more than five no matter who they're playing. You know. You do that, you do the numbers, you know that better than anybody. So yeah, actually, I actually think there's actually value in that as opposed to take in the field. Yeah, and I think the reason why you have to take Alabama or Georgia. If you look at our power ratings over at action that work, Alabama's two and a half points better than Georgia. So let me give you some fictitious lines about what Georgia would be against the competition of teams like three through six. Here, Georgia would be six and a half points a favorite over Ohio state. Georgia would be eight points over Oklahoma, eight points over Penn state and they would be nine and a half against Florida and they would be more than ten against Cincinnati. So you know, when you correlates one hundred and ninety five as a championship game spread money line versus what the spread would be, there's definitely value in Alabama or Georgia. Yeah, and then you add, you know, like you said, at two and a half points to Bama, and yeah, it's I would definitely be the play. Yeah, definitely. So let's go ahead and talk about some of the odds that we've got up here now that we we said the one loss would be inc stayed. Probably. I mean there's going to be more one lost teams coming up here real quick. I think Oklahomama be one of them after face. And that's just and I remember. That's just right now. That's not I'm not saying at the end of the year if that's my one, one last team. I'm just saying right now, if they had to pick the playoffs, last chance to buy a Cincinnati at forty two one in their opinion. I have to I have to say it. I mean it's a big game. I'll answer your question before you answer. Can Twelve and no Cincinnati get in over any of those one lost teams? The answer is no. And here's I'll make it as succinct as possible. If Florida's one last team. That means they beat Georgia and Alabama. That trump Cincinnati's best wins of Indiana, Notre Day. If Ohio state gets in, that means they beat Penn State, Michigan and then either I or Wisconsin in the big ten title game. Texas em gets in, that means they went out. They beat Bama and then likely Georgia to when the SEC also Lsu, they would have defeated Ucla, maybe the only one that Cincinnati could jump, because their best wins remaining would be at Stanford and then again Oregon and then USC and then again who emerges in the north, even Auburn, going last Auburn. If they went out, that means they will have beaten Lsu, Georgia, a and M Bama and whoever they play in the SEC title game in se state. Already as the Clemson win, they would also have to beat Miami North Carolina and then Miami and North Carolina again in the ACC title game. I think the the only two teams that Cincinnati would have, you legit chance to stay above would be UCLA and NC state. But basically the SEC and big ten teams, no way, no, how. Don't shoot the Messenger. I think two teams that we got to pay attention to. Penn state there in the driver's seat. I know they have to go to Ohio state. You have to win that game to make it into big ten...

...championship. But at forty two one, I think those are pretty good odds against the defense that hasn't figured anything out. You can put carry combs up in the box all you want, all you want, they have not figured anything out. And then you know Arkansas. I I've had a lot of questions, especially from my grandmother WHO's looking for a new refrigerator in gator one. I mean the Christmas is coming up right. I mean there's a lot of mouths of feed around here. I got to Parse out the gifts. Artists has eighty two one and I've had a lot of questions about it this week and frankly, the point spread that it is suggest that arkansass chances of winning this weekend or about eleven percent. So if you want to take that, and this game doesn't even mean anything, Brett, they're saying there's a chance if they lose this game, they could still go to the College of ball playoff because, remember, you got to beat Bama. You're not going to this to see championship game unless you beat Alabama. Youre right, you got to beat Alabama, no matter what happens with this game. There are books out there that allow open parlays, and when I say open parlay's that means I'm going to make it a five team parlay and I get to come in and pick the teams whenever I want. And if you really Arkansas for the next five weeks, and that's what I'm saying, if you really think Arkansas can win the national championship, then you need to open up a parlay. It Open Parlay for about four spots and you're going to start with Alabama and then you're going to would you, when you make more money, though, if you just took Arkansas on the money line and rolled it over every week, because I've heard some people talk of that, about that before, as opposed to tyne it up in a parley, if you just take the money line and roll it over every week, it would actually exceed whatever you would went off the off the parlay. But of course, if you do that, after three or four weeks you're going to have this big bank roll and go wow, maybe I should stop right here, or do I keep going? I've actually done that a few times where the the number of wins gets so high for the ticket that you bought that you just kind of push off and go and take like you know some guy, some some team that's on the board that's like thirty five favorites and in the parlay. So you know you have to be kind of an artist when you're building these open parlay spots. But when you consider what eighty two one is, you can get to that real fast. With Arkansas schedule, long shots on the board that are still undefeated. We mentioned NC state down at five hundred two one is an undefeated by you go into the College Football playoff to and I ask that. I mean, yeah, they can't they? I mean they play seven power five opponents, but then you look at the rest of their schedule. You know, you toss sedate, USF couple other teams. Again, if, when you're comparing them with a SEC or big ten school, the schedule does not match up with those schools. What if Cincinnati and Byu run the table? What who will the committee rank higher? I would think they would rank they based on what they've done in the past. I think they would rank by you hire, because they had, they would have seven power five wins. You know, yeah, they're off from the PAC twelve, but they're still power five. So it's almost like they played a leak schedule with seven power five games. Cincinnati would have two wins against Indiana, Notre Dame, UCS, the next best team on their schedule, but they're not ranked. So that, yeah, that's that would be fascinating if that happened to see where the committee fell with Byu and Cincinnati. I've wondered ever since is introduction of the College Football playoff. Are we trying to get higher TV ratings with some of the with the rankings and some of the teams and the talk, because does Byu or Cincinnati drawing off eyeballs for a January first, you know game that precedes what the Rose Ball I mean. I I've actually been on the mock playoffs selection committee a couple of years and it basically we you do a past season and you go through the whole process, not a you know, five week process, but in one afternoon you go through the process of ranking the teams and, believe me, all of the numbers and information you look at. I really, really doubt. Again, I can't speak for people that are on the committee. I know when I went through the process I didn't even consider TV rankings. I looked at who they beaten.

What's their toughest wins? There were their worst loss for the Games home, road, margin of victory, game control, whatever words you got to throw out there. I've really I know the cons first I look. I love conspiracy theories. They're not. They're not picking teams based on TV ratings, as much as we would love to think that they're simply going to pick the better teams. Now you could argue, well, why don't they pick a group five team? Well, they don't have this tough for schedule. Is the power five teams and also, by the way, the power of five teams also draw more eyeballs. But they're getting picked because of the tougher conference schedule and overall schedule and not because of the number of eyeballs, although it makes for a you know, makes for a good conspiracy theory. Well, that's good news for a team like NC state because I believe I read an article where it's city ESPN's not allowed to say the word rally anymore, because it doesn't sound like big enough of a city or big enough venue. And now quick reminder to our listeners. The big bets on campus podcast is presented by Wind Bet Sports Book and they've got a great sign up offer for you guys. This season. New windbt patreons who open an account and deposit twenty of more can make their first bet risk free up to Onezero. That's right. If you open a new windbt account, make a qualifying deposit and place your first bet within ten days, that bet is risk free up to a thousand dollars. In eligible states a thousand dollars. So take advantage of this wind bet offer now. Just Click on the action network link in the episode description. Must be twenty one or older to gamble. No one to stop before you start. You have a gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. All righty, let's get back to the show. If you had to pick a national champion right now, let let's end with this. I think Georgie's said, with the National Championship. I said Georgia, Oklahoma Natural Championship game. I still think George's win the National Championship. Are Ever, you Verer and off were still staying with saying yeah, I mean I picked Alabama for the season. I'm not going to I'm not going to change every week. I'm going to stick with them. But you know, Georgia is much, much better than I anticipated them being and you know, like you said, it'd be a basically a lesson of field gold game on a neutral, neutral site. That sounds right. You know, look, this is only September. I think will have a much better idea and in a couple weeks, but I certainly don't feel as confident is I do about Alabama before the season. If they're not the best team right now. George's one a, then Alabama's one B, but I still think I still give Alabama a slight edge. Yeah, I completely agree. Like we said before, they're both power rated well ahead of everybody else, not and a lot of teams are about a touchdown less than both of them. So this is it. This has been the big bets on campus sources. Addition, tomorrow afternoon you can hear our red hot group of five experts, Mike I in Ello and Mike Calibers, and they went four or five on their parley last way. These guys are hot. Give the GFI deep dine episode. Listen late, late Thursday night. Stucky and I will return for our week five betting preview, all here on the BBOC podcast. Brett has to get back to making athletic directors and two owns blow up. Thanks for joining me, Brett. I'll see everybody at the window.

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